Bitcoin's post-election rally died quickly. Very quickly.

Wednesday, November 4, 2026: BTC adds 3.9% and touches ~$81,000. The market exhales, retail traders write "let's go." Thursday, November 5: minus 5.5%, pullback to ~$76,000. All the growth is eaten up in a single trading day. ETH took the same rollercoaster ride: +6.6% and immediately −7.7%. Beautiful on paper. In reality — a meat grinder for those who bought on emotion on Wednesday.

And here we are on the threshold of Friday, November 6. The question is simple: what's next?

The Red Friday omen is a statistic, not a law

There is a pattern the market has noticed before. Fridays following US midterm elections consistently went into the negative:

• 2014 — −2.2%
• 2018 — −1.3%
• 2022 — −3.1%

After presidential elections, it's a completely different story. Positive or around zero:

• 2012 — +1.0%
• 2016 — +0.3%
• 2020 — −0.1%
• 2024 — +0.8%

Today, November 6, 2026, marks the fourth such Friday after a midterm election. Three out of the previous three were red.

But here is the thing: the sample size is small. Three data points are an omen, not an ironclad law. Use it as context, not as a trade signal.

Thursday broke yet another omen

Until 2026, there was another "omen": the Thursday after the election is historically a strong day. Growth in 5 out of 7 cases, with an average result of +3.3%. Traders knew this and positioned themselves accordingly.

In 2026, Thursday delivered −5.5%. The omen is broken.

It's important to understand this: when the market breaks patterns, it most often doesn't do it by accident. Either the context has changed, or everyone already knew about the pattern and priced it in beforehand (hello, Wednesday growth). Buy the rumor — bought. Sell the news — sold. The train left in both directions within two days.

What happens in two weeks — statistics are silent

If we look at Bitcoin's momentum two weeks after the midterm elections:

• 2014 — +23%
• 2018 — −14%
• 2022 — −20% (FTX collapse ate everything and added more on top)

The spread is colossal. In 2022, the main driver of the drop wasn't the election, but the bankruptcy of the industry's largest exchange. This is not "post-election statistics," it's force majeure.

Three data points, two of which have specific contexts. Betting on "in two weeks it will be X" based on this is suicide.

NFP at 16:30 MSK — cannot be ignored

Today at 16:30 Moscow time, the US labor market report — Non-Farm Payrolls — is released. Forecast: +65k jobs compared to +29k last time. Unemployment — 4.2%.

Strong NFP = Fed is in no rush to cut rates = pressure on risk assets = potential pressure on BTC. Weak NFP — reverse logic.

This doesn't mean you should trade the news itself. It means volatility will spike at 16:30, and you need to move your stops to levels before the release, not after.

Key Level: $75,200

Everything boils down to a single figure — $75,200. This is Thursday's low. Both scenarios are built around it.

Scenario A: Holding the level — Long (~55%)

BTC holds above $75,200. This repeats the momentum of 2016 and 2024 — the post-election correction is bought up, and the market turns upward. First targets on recovery — a return to $79,000–$81,000.

Entry condition: closing an hourly or four-hour candle above $75,200 with volume. Not a touch, not a breakout — a close.

Scenario B: Breaking the level downward — Short (~45%)

BTC drops below $75,200. The fourth red Friday materializes. Next support levels — the $72,000–$73,000 area, then we look at $69,000.

But here is a critically important point: other people's stops are sitting below the $75,200 level. This means that during a breakdown, the price could sharply plunge to flush out stops — and just as sharply reverse back. Shorting a breakout without a tight stop and a clear target means driving yourself into a margin call on a bounce.

What stage are we at right now

Not in a trending market. In a market of uncertainty: the post-election impulse has exhausted itself, the major macro catalyst (NFP) hasn't happened yet, and the key level hasn't been confirmed in either direction.

In such a situation, you don't need to guess. You need to wait for confirmation — and trade based on the level, not the news. We check levels with Hermes AI, not by guessing on CNN headlines and Telegram signal channels.

Conclusion

The post-election pump has been eaten up. The red Friday omen is three data points, not a guarantee. Thursday already broke another pattern. The market does what the market does.

$75,200 decides:

• Above — look for a long with a tight stop, target $79,000–$81,000
• Below — short with a tight stop below the stop-hunt flush, target $72,000–$73,000

NFP at 16:30 MSK will add volatility — by that moment, the position should already be formed or the stop adjusted.

Data: Binance/Bitstamp daily candles, UTC. Material is not financial advice.